San Diego Real Estate Blog

Sunday, 20 September 2009

San Diego mid-month market update (9-18-09)

Welcome to all the new subscribers to our monthly market report. It is always our goal to provide unbiased, professional input on what is happening in the San Diego real estate market and to use the expertise of others to give a well-rounded view. As we all know, the real estate market is not like the stock market, i.e. we can't watch prices on a ticker!

I just checked our local Multiple Listing Service and found that our current inventory level is less than 50% of what it was a year ago and is normally. Right now we have 6,375 detached homes on the market plus 2,602 attached properties (condos, townhomes, etc.). During the last 30 days 2,069 detached homes opened new escrows, so when dividing that number by the total inventory we see about a 3 month supply of homes which puts the market into the seller's favor with prices starting to rise. In addition to those that went into escrow 2,396 detached homes went "contingent", which means they were either short sales or bank owned properties that are awaiting lender approval. Combining those 2 numbers means that over 4,300 of the 6,375 homes on the market went under contract! This means that there was a 1.5 month supply and explains the ultra competitive bidding that is occurring with 20-40 offers happening on many properties.

In the attached home market there are now 2,602 units on the market. Over the last 30 days 1,155 opened new escrows and 1,905 went "contingent", meaning that over 3,000 units went under or are awaiting lender approval. This is less than a 1 month supply!

This has been an extremely frustrating market for buyers and agents alike for the following reasons:

Prices are being forced up and out of the range of many first time buyers.
The difficulty in winning a bid makes it nearly impossible for first time buyers to secure the $8,000 tax credit that expires 11/30/09.
Appraisals are tricky as appraisers compare new sales to older ones at lower prices. This is a classic shifting market issue that has been exacerbated by the new appraisal rules that are so complicated that an 6 page rule now must have an 8 page Q&A attached to explain it!
We are advising many buyers to set their maximum price in searches about 10% below their purchasing power to allow for over bids.

Following are several links to articles that I noticed during the last few weeks:

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/sep/06/dont-be-among-victims-foreclosure-prevention-scams/?uniontrib

Foreclosure scam warning

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/sep/06/new-rules-home-appraisals-under-fire/?metro&zIndex=161384

Appraisal issues after new regulations

http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/2163510.html?ref=patrick.net

Loan mod backlash toward banks

http://rereport.com/sdc/print/SDCNCCRick&RickiUngar.pdf

San Diego Real Estate Report 9-12-09

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/sep/15/housing-prices-county-rise-sales-down/?uniontrib

Prices up, sales down

POSTED BY: Rick Ungar AT 09:08 am | Permalink | E-mail this

Friday, 04 September 2009

San Diego Real Estate Update (9-1-09)

Happy September! Wow, that's hard to believe...

August was another active month for real estate in San Diego, as well as many other areas. Buyer interest is still extremely high and up to 40 offers are generated on the best listings. Interest rates and prices are still extremely low and the $8,000 First Time Buyer Tax Credit will expire at the end of November unless it is extended. Many listings are selling for above the listed price.

Here's a quick summary of activity in San Diego county in August:

Single Family detached listings: 5,918

Single Family detached new escrows opened in August only: 2,142

Months of inventory: 2.67 (This indicates prices are rising)

Single Family attached listings: 2,738

Single Family attached new escrows opened in August only: 1,132

Months of inventory: 2.41 (This indicates prices are rising)

Total all detached + attached listings now on the market: 8.456

Total new escrows opened in August only: 3,274

Months of inventory: 2.58

The total inventory is approximately 50% of "normal", hence the strong demand for the available properties, especially the equity and bank owned sales.

Per my normal practice, here are some links to articles that I saw during the month, including one quoting me about distressed properties:

37% of all Realtors in the USA have had at least ONE sale fall through since May 1st due to the enactment of the government's HVCC "new appraisal regulations"! This equates to 400,000 deals killed by appraisers & this new program! Another example of governmental brilliance at work!

http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/freddie-mac-nyse-fre-primary-mortgage-market-survey-pmms-mortgage-rates-2009-new-home-sales-1285.php

Mortgage rates lowest in months

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/aug/20/affordability-homes-county-dips-still-near-record-/?uniontrib

Affordability dips but still near all time record

http://rismedia.com/2009-08-22/entry-level-housing-affordability-reaches-67-in-second-quarter-of-2009/

Affordability at high level

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/aug/22/8216underwater8217-households-resurfacing-it-depen/?uniontrib

SDUT article quoting me

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-rise-for-2nd-month-in-a-row-2009-08-25?siteid=bnbh

Prices up for 2^nd month in row

POSTED BY: Rick Ungar AT 10:52 pm | Permalink | E-mail this

Rick Ungar is a Certified Distressed Property Expert, solving the foreclosure issue one homeowner at a time. Contact us today to learn about the best options to preserve your credit and buy again soon.

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